"This example matters beyond Bend, vibe-coding makes it makes it far too easy to implement a design that’s horribly broken or decades behind the current state of the art because you can immediately get a result without ever having to do any research."
This is totally true but almost totally irrelevant.
I'll use some hyperbole here to make the point: Whether the design is broken or decades behind doesn't matter anymore. Neither of those are an outcome/end goal. They are means we historically have used to achieve good end goals or outcomes.
In the end, the goal is usually "does it meet the needs of the person who needed it" not "is it good software". If it no longer meets their needs and they can vibe code another total piece of shit in an hour that meets their needs again, they still may be "better off" than spending time researching the field and learning and ...
This may feel shitty, and it may feel like it should not be true.
But right now, that seems to be true?
In that sense, the author is wrong that vibe-coding is a trap. The trap is assuming you have to make something good to meet someone's needs both now, and in the future.
Now, like i said, this is hyperbole, and there are lots of good arguments against it. The author's just isn't one.
Technically good or better has never mattered very much in the marketplace, despite people wanting it to really badly (ease of use often mattered, but not technical goodness). Software engineers often took pride in their work and so there were usually kernels of goodness in even the shittiest software. All you are seeing is that now it is nowhere near as hard to create and bring these "solutions" to market, and more importantly, doesn't necessarily require anyone who has any pride in their work at all, or even have any experience in software engineering. As such, technical goodness has mostly gone out the window because the market never required or really rewarded it.
Good point, it's similar to music and other forms of art. The qualities that the people creating it care most about often have little to do with how well it is received.
Lawyer here (non practicing so to be clear none of this affects me):
most comments I read here don't seem to realize that different areas of law have very very different economic models and don't even mention which one they think will be affected or why, they just sort of lump it all together.
For example: It is highly unlikely llms will have any meaningful effect on high value personal injury law - I don't see a 5 million dollar case being handed to an LLM when the majority of the cost is in trial aids and not even lawyers. It may affect where and how they advertise. It may affect how they work. But it seems really unlikely to put any of them out of business any time soon by people doing it themselves.
Will it affect other areas more? Maybe. Probably? But so far I haven't seen a ton of comments that make specific enough arguments that they could really be debated or responded to effectively with a useful opinion
No. It'll be like software. Entry level employment will be affected. You wont want or need associate attorneys when you can hire a brilliant AI associate for 1/10th the price.
In commercial law, the business model is to rent the associates out to clients at rates higher than you pay (d/t your supervision). No client will pay $350/hour for your AI.
And for direct billing, it's not your interest to do things faster for the client (at risk of making a mistake).
So the real question is whether these pay-by-the-hour models will die as a result of competition from fixed-price transactions made viable via automation. I think not because the entire difficulty of legal work is that it's a complex bundle of issues until you sort them out; once sorted, there's really little to do other than execute (read: paralegals).
Corporate lawyer at big law firm here. I believe the model will be like this: we will review your 1000 agreements but with AI. AI is generally accurate but has some risks, if you agree we will charge you less. The client will agree. Instead of spending 300-400 hours to review the ageeements AI will do instantly. A lawyer will spend the time on reviewing the red flags identified and draft a report.
We already do the same with translation. Before computer translation became good (i.e pre-Deepl era), we used to translate documents (cease and desist letters, court petitions etc.) ourselves. Now we offer AI translation free of charge. If client wants reliance on the translation we charge a small bit.
Lawfirms are also under pressure for meeting internal budgets. Most clients ask for capped fees. If you charge 10k for a job to a client and the hourly costs ramp up to 20k, the management criticises the partner, the associates become unwilling to work for the partner (as their hours get written off).
So with AI law firms can bet more competitively as the cost (human attorney hours) are reduced.
But they may be willing to pay $200/hour for your AI (plus, of course, your final expertise in the matter as the lawyer), and the firm can ditch the paralegals and pocket the difference.
The point is, if you need fewer grunts doing the busywork, you can charge less and be competitive.
There's a middle area too between your options - a law firm that utilizes AI offers cheaper pricing than the current firms for the same work. Ideally competition will drive prices down but of course law doesn't have the benefit of do-overs on cases, so reputation still plays a big factor.
That's the big question, how prices evolve if LLMs increase supply. Standard economic theory says that prices must collapse. There is probably still a short time of 2-5 years where AI native firms can pocket in quite some arbitrage but I guess markets will eventually figure it out and prices will collapse.
This is not only for law. The same applies to all the other industries where LLMs can be used to automate work tasks.
I agree that prices will go down dramatically in occupations that primarily involve code, words, and numbers - and in general knowing the "rules". But there are so many occupations that will have to wait for AI to enter the physical realm. I also predict that the backlash will largely prevent that from occurring.
But they already do! There are cases of professional service firms creating their reports using LLMs, there have even been a few prominent scandals re the fake data generated in them
It is in litigation as well. The issue is that corporate clients are demanding AI. They don’t want to pay associates to do a first draft, they want senior partner to just push the ChatGPT button and then check it.
> No. It'll be like software. Entry level employment will be affected.
Whether everyone at the labs knows it or not, this it what they are doing to entire industries, starting with software: Embrace, extend, and extinguish
They came for software first. It was the industry that was “eating the world”. Mathematicians were also affected. Because math was also “code” thanks to Lean. It was collateral damage.
Now they’re coming for lawyers. Law also has “code”. It’s text-based. It’s arms extend to every industry.
What's next is capturing all of our audio and visual inputs from cradle to grave, so that we can be truly replaced.
Honestly, if that happened in a 100% trusted environment, it might be cool. But, there is no money in that. Well, maybe Apple would do that? Private Cloud Compute is cool af.
Still, we are far more likely fully cooked than fully trustworthy personal AI agents happening at scale.
It'll be like software. The demand for both software and legal services is effectively infinite. If it becomes cheaper to file lawsuits then we'll get more lawsuits, not the same number of lawsuits at a lower price.
There will still be jobs for competent associate attorneys to prompt LLMs and review output. But frankly a lot of attorneys — especially many of those who attended "Third Tier Toilet" (TTT) law schools — were always a waste of money and should have never entered the profession in the first place.
There is a huge problem in at least family law where a tactic is to simply ddos your opponent with motions and frivolous complaints until someone runs out of money and settles. I'm watching someone finally successfully defend themselves using a Harvey like tool they built themselves. An appellate attorney they consulted with recently, told them they had never seen anyone going pro se get as far as they had in appellate court. So I'm hoping that this serves as a return to making the legal system more accessible, and not just something used to railroad people.
You can’t 10x the number of lawsuits, as the courts are already at capacity. If frivolous lawsuits become common they’ll just change the laws to require a greater damages for it to be heard.
Lawsuits are just one type of legal services. There will also be more contract reviews, more cease-and-desist letters, more patent applications, more regulatory comments, more license applications, etc. Although I do expect legislatures will eventually budget for expanding civil court systems in response to lobbying from business groups to speed up trials.
Worked for years for personal injury lawyers as an assistant/clerk. Work as a programmer now, tho. I agree that a LLM cannot do a lawyer's job on its own. Especially a trial lawyer's - which involves appearance and performance in a court room. But LLMs are having a massive impact on anything involving digestion of documents (medical records, pleadings, briefs, blah blah) and creation of documents (demand letters, pleadings, correspondence, etc etc) - like 90% of the work. What's happening is very similar to software engineering - the ladder is getting pulled up for entry level and paralegal work.
Can AI replace divorce lawyers? Marriage has no friction, but divorce is high friction. Made impossibly expensive and time consuming because of the cartel of divorce industry.
There are hundreds if not thousands of divorce lawyers. How is it a “cartel?”
Divorce is expensive because divorces are acrimonious and people in that situation would rather spend the assets fucking each other over than letting the other person get them.
Divorce is expensive because it is big bucks for the lawyers and family court cartel. They have a vested interest in not changing the laws. When laws are made fair, and the perverse incentives to divorce are lessened, divorce rates plunge. However, divorce lawyers lobby against these laws.
Kentucky became the first state to pass a law making equally shared custody the default arrangement in divorces and separations.
AI will likely replace divorce lawyers (or, at least make existing divorce lawyers much more efficient) - for non-contested divorces that are amicable. Roughly 95% of what a divorce lawyer does in that context is entirely automatable.
A template document and some software already does it without an LLM. Advising the clients on what it means and what they have to do is unfortunately something AI assistants are bad at. But this use case is not an expensive use case for family lawyers; court systems already try to make this type of settlement accessible to pro se people.
Divorce is extremely cheap if you both agree on everything. Its literally one of the options on the divorce filing. You just pay the court fees. The problem is both parties rarely agree on everything and that's when it gets expensive.
There’s an argument to be made if divorce was easier than more people might get married when they are less serious. My view though is make it harder to get married and easier to get divorced.
He clearly meant getting married has no friction, while getting out of a marriage has quite a bit. Presumably there’s friction in the marriage otherwise why would they get divorced.
huh? Many/most are no-fault jurisdictions with strict rules on dividing community property. Divorce is easy and cheap, unless it's hard to find assets.
It's not just the divorce lawyers. We have 3x as many lawyers per capita in the US as in the 1970s. The system is designed by lawyers for lawyers. They will create more bureaucracy and more procedure to consume any surplus.
I think this is key. Lawyers make a lot of money for being experts on the sidelines of disputes with values greatly in excess of their fees. They were never paid for their busy work.
Personal injury attorney. AI is entrenched of every single phase of litigation, from the busywork of getting records, research, developing case theory and themes, expert selection, expert collaboration, negotiating, drafting demands, drafting pleadings, drafting discovery, drafting discovery responses, deposition prep, motion practice, jury selection, voir dire, opening statements, witness direct outlines, witness cross outlines, closing statements, and appeals.
Yeah, this matches my friends - they use LLM's for tons of things, using Eve and such. But nobody is replacing the lawyers themselves in cases of any value.
I also have friends in the world of high-volume personal injury (IE the morgan and morgan's of the world) but they also aren't being replaced by LLMs so far.
Yeah. Let's not forget that just a year ago, those of us in tech could not conceive of developers getting replaced by AI. Things have come so far since then however that there are multiple studies showing junior developer hiring has slowed down to a crawl.
I'd love to get your thoughts on the current frontier models for law, or a link to anything you've written on the subject. Where do you think they're at?
Yeah geeks just stop trying! Seriously? Yeah, we’re in a bubble and narratives are ahead of reality but if you really don’t think AI is and will continue to eat knowledge work, just keep making your buggy whips.
One of the things I've been noticing are lawyers getting annoyed when they realized you spent time working a matter with an LLM. In the cases I've seen, it had nothing to do with the quality of what came out of the LLM. It seems to be related to --and this is only my perspective-- a reality where now reasonably intelligent/experienced clients are coming to them with a case fairly well digested, whereas before they would have to pay the law firm tens of thousands of dollars to ingest documentation and information and do the digestion.
In a couple of instances I've come to the table better informed about the relevant law and case history than the attorneys were. In many ways I think this is a matter of people understanding that none of us are infinite human databases, so you can't know everything. Instead of rejecting LLMs (perhaps being passive-aggressive), they should embrace them as well as better-informed clients.
Having used LLMs for software development I know full well just how terrible they can be if you don't know what you are doing, don't guide the work correctly, etc. So I am not taking legal LLM analysis as ground truth, but it isn't garbage either.
The word “never” is a dangerous word. In my lifetime I have seen it many times where something was supposed to “never” happen only to see it happen a few years later.
I'll buy that - but, how often does one need an honest-to-goodness expert? 99% of the time most people's requirements can be satisfied with general-competence, and, while the AI systems we have today are mostly only generally competent in porting code from one language to another - they are getting consistently better. I expect we'll start to see general competence in many more areas in the next few years.
> I'll buy that - but, how often does one need an honest-to-goodness expert?
Any time you are doing anything important, where the outcome actually matters. For example, I was recently applying for a study permit and if I generated my application using an LLM instead of consulting with an immigration lawyer and writing it myself, I would not have gotten my study permit. I was recently applying for internships, and if I hadn't paid a real recruiter to review my resume and advise me, I would not have gotten my interview. And trust me, I spent at least an hour trying to get an LLM to generate what I wanted, but no matter how I begged or described what I wanted, it was no use. Good luck fine tuning an LLM to be good at any of this.
> they are getting consistently better
No, they are not getting better, and they will never replace an actual human expert, because a human expert has the actual experience and up-to-date knowledge of what they are an expert at, and also all the complementary context and the current state of affairs in that area. The LLM has none of that.
Then hopefully at some point they get to experience the consequences of having low quality thresholds, and perhaps then their quality thresholds will increase.
There are plenty of areas where a "low bar" is more than enough. "low" doesn't necessarily mean bad here, it can simply mean "not the best".
I would argue the majority (in the true sense of the word) of white-collar service work does not require an expert.
It requires someone who has reasonable qualifications in the given field, and the motivation ($) to help you with your task.
So no one needs a top-shelf $900/hour lawyer to draw up a basic low-stakes contract where both parties agree to all the terms as written. You just need someone to ensure that the contract is legally valid as written.
Lol no one cares. Most of that is smoke and mirrors anyways. Stokes was plagiarized. Most of these "breakthrough" solutions are actually present in the training data and in the prompts researchers and mathematicians input into ChatGPT themselves, prompts OpenAI then steals even when you don't agree to improve the model.
PS: I use LLMs every day, basically let Codex write most of my code (after 15+ years of professional programming), these are amazing tools, smart in some ways, but completely demented in others. People just need to fucking stop being AI doomers and AI coomers. Is this technology great? Yes. Is it worth 10 trillion? Hell fucking no. If we get to a point where RSI is a thing, then maybe. So far it's not a thing and its not even close.
Yes. But (as a side effect) this has entailed resolving a number of conjectures that have been open for decades, only one of which (the Navier-Stokes blow-up) is attached to any controversy.
Listening to developers complain about AI doing things to their life and the world at large when they have spent the past 30 years automating just about everyone else they could out of a job (Since this has been one of the primary uses of software) is ... something else. It sounds like a a a mix of hubris, arrogance, cognitive dissonance, ignorance, etc.
Only when it started to affect their world did any developers start to care, and even then nobody seems to ever stop and say "hey what were we doing the past 30 years, maybe we should think about this", it's instead "hey look at what these other people are doing with AI, someone should think about this".
It feels like, to paraphrase a movie quote - "Nobody gets to destroy jobs and the the world but us"
Yup. If current-gen AIs were capable of writing articles, but not code, then devs wouldn't care at all. None of these articles would exist, and some new variation of "learn to code" would be the snarky reply to nay-sayers.
In fact, we already pretty much have proof of this: devs didn't care when software destroyed the journalism industry twenty years ago. Turns out that people ultimately only care when their only jobs are on the line.
I would care if even these machines could only write articles, and I cared when software destroyed multiple forms of media delivery.
I won't say it was all bad, unequivocally, but it made me sad and I tried to think of solutions.
Turns out, alas, that make people are willing to trade away freedom, independence, privacy, and a functioning culture to save a few bucks and get dopamine hits on demand.
The difference is that automated tasks are (or should be) deterministic and reproducible, and taking up time devs could be using to do their actual job (writing code, solving technical problems, etc).
And how could we not be? The world is unfathomably big and complex, and each of us wants their own narrative (well that, and to economically support loved ones, etc...)
This is all true but it also is true that MTE was in part built to accelerate address sanitizer.
Kostya/et al who pushed for and designed the extension, was trying to accelerate address sanitizer so it could be on all the time. Among other things.
In fact, most presentations presented it literally as a way to do hardware accelerated ASAN (again, among other things), so the post you responded to is correct in that sense.
(I was there at the time, helping him figure out how to push for it)
Lawyer here - As i explained last time we had a variant of this thread (see comment history if you are interested), this is a very complicated area that people try to make very simple.
It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically:
1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a))
2. The CEA regulations ban contracts that are illegal under state law (17 CFR 40.11)
3. Other forms of gambling/betting/contracts that are not sports are generally a-ok.
4. This is not a case of first impression, it's just getting relitigated because Kalshi doesn't want to follow the actual law. This has actually been pretty settled law for a long time, with new flareups maybe once a decade. Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was.
The third circuit's decision is pretty clearly "out there" in terms of existing caselaw.
However, this will end up at SCOTUS, and everything until then just doesn't matter. That will be a coin flip even though it shouldn't be
> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was.
This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in crypto on exactly this one-way bet.
Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Every once in a while you'll have change the app a little to sort of comply with a judicial order. There's practically no downside to this strategy.
> Binance, FTX, BitMex, Silk Road founders all went to jail
BitMex didn't go to jail, they all got probation/ankle tag, for not running a clean money org (allegedly no KYC, registering US accounts from offshore, etc.). CZ got caught in the US anti-China panic that also saw the TikTok ban pass Congress with nearly 80(!) votes in the Senate. Silk Road: drug trafficking.
FTX is the closest analog, but by all accounts they did not run a clean operation. What I have read of their operation would have been grounds for charging even if they were trading legal securities.
Seems the through line is if your main business is illegal, you need to run it as if it were going to be legalized tomorrow.
Sam Bankman Fried wasn't jailed for running FTX. He was jailed for conducting fraud. Silk Road wasn't a registered company at all. It was downright criminal.
IIRC, the Binance founder simply paid Trump off and got a pardon, with Trump himself admitting afterwards that he 'didn't know who the guy was'. So, the assertion that there are no real consequences anymore for 0.1% continues to hold.
Kalshi hired Donald Trump Jr as a strategic advisor with a salary reported to be around $300,000 per year. Recently there was a meeting between him and various State Attorneys General, where the message was back off prediction markets. Not too long after that other areas of the Trump Admin sent a letter basically saying the same thing.
And so the circuit courts coming to very different conclusions from the 9th circuit represents the inherent political corruption involved in the court system.
Circuit splits get resolved at the Supreme Court and I would make a prediction that it isnt a coin flip, probably more of a safe bet.
Silk Road was running an online marketplace for heroin and hitmen. That is not the same as Uber pushing the boundaries on what a "taxi" is, and you obviously know that. FTX was a ponzi scheme and that is the one financial crime they will still put you in jail for. It's the exception that proves parent comment's rule
e.g. make as much money as possible while you have a favorable judge/Congress/President b/c you assume the ability to make money will go away once the next regime is in power.
Fortunes were made long before venture capitalists and governments got involved in (crypto)currencies. Even larger fortunes were prevented by legislation crafted by the banking cartel over many decades, pushed through with the help of their lobbyists in DC.
Existing legislation favors the haves, not the could-haves. And many people go to jail every year for breaking rules that big banks get a slap on the wrist for. Money laundering, terror financing, fraud,... Name a major bank and I'll list you some crimes no one ever spent a day in prison for. But that's fine because they have a license.
Not just breaking the log: use your VC funding to both build your product and buy your politicians. The asymmetry is basically that our politicians are way cheaper than market demand, like they're communists in north korea and just border guards who can get bought off with some contraband.
Isn't this also more unique since they're trading futures contracts vs whatever a traditional sports bet is? I thought it was kind of a clever end run around the law where taking down their gig would also mean that you have to attack commodities futures contracts as well and that the Congress would be loathe to do that lest they accidentally outlaw the stock market.
When I say "clever" I don't mean"good" I mean "crafty". You acknowledge someone has game without condoning their behavior or extolling it as virtuous.
Congress didn't eliminate the federal prohibition on sports gambling when they created the CFTC. Ergo, it is clear that Congress did not intend for sports gambling transactions to be within the jurisdiction of the CFTC.
The only clever thing they did was putting members of the Trump family on their board.
> because Kalshi doesn't want to follow the actual law
Correction: because the federal government doesn't want Kalshi to follow the actual law. CFTC ordered Kalshi to continue operating in NY when NY tried to crack down on it. Donald Trump Jr. is a paid advisor for Kalshi. The US Government's conservative leaders are ignoring states' rights in order to personally profit, using Kalshi as a tool.
> this will end up at SCOTUS, and everything until then just doesn't matter
Unless Congress passes a law so SCOTUS doesn't have to. We can't keep pretending it's normal for SCOTUS to decide everything about our society. If Congress won't do its job, why do we have them?
We have them because the Founders thought it was a good idea.
Then they thought it was a good idea to have two houses with different criteria, giving two chances to quash legislation. Plus the veto. Plus the Supreme Court (whose job they left almost completely undefined, so they made up a job description).
So we have them because we can't get rid of them. But they are practically useless. They can usually manage the bare minimum of reauthorizing the thing they said last year. Then they can rename a few post offices, have some grandstanding hearings, and then go home to campaign for reelection.
That’s the history of separation of powers, the judiciary is the final check in the loop. It doesn’t fully explain why Congress has allowed the expansion of executive power for nearly a century, resulting in more and more major issues being pushed to the Supreme Court.
That’s not to say states have lost power, their reach has also grown exponentially far outpacing even the federal in terms of number of workers and written law.
It’s mostly just Congress has become self satisfied on being negotiators for spending the most money in their own states, while ignoring the minimization of their role in the greater power dynamic.
Everyone makes a big deal about president as the signal but IMO if you take a 10,000-foot view of US history Congress neutering itself is the real long term narrative. Including most major current populist issues like immigration, debt, war, abortion, etc. They are hands off unless it involves new spending.
> It doesn’t fully explain why Congress has allowed the expansion of executive power for nearly a century, resulting in more and more major issues being pushed to the Supreme Court.
It's because the US is a presidential republic with no concept of a non-confidence vote. This makes the sitting head of the party ~impossible to remove, and when government fails to reach consensus, instead of... Having an election, and let the voters decide, power de-facto ends up in the hands of the executive.
> I am not sure a vote of non-confidence would have helped here — there are only two parties.
But why are there only two parties?
The rest of the Anglosphere–Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK–have multiparty systems–some are more multiparty than others, but none of them have the hard two-party system that the US has, in which third parties have a very marginal role (not completely marginal – e.g. in a close election, the decisions of New York's Conservative and Working Families parties can make a real difference to the outcome – but certainly at a national level third parties have no real power in the US.)
First-past-the-post is a popular explanation, but it can't by itself explain it, since the UK and Canada use it, yet lack a US-style hard two party system (and with the rise of the Reform party in the UK, the British system is becoming less two-party than it has been in a long time.)
Even if first-past-the-post could change, it's not the whole ballgame. To get on a state ballot you need thousands of petition signatures, and those signatures can be invalidated on technicalities brought up by major parties' legal teams. To be covered by the media or be included in a debate you need to poll at a high percentage. You can't get public funding to campaign unless you already had a high percentage of the vote in a previous election. Nobody will donate to you because the third party just detracts from the other two that will give the big donors what they want. And gerrymandering ensures the same people keep getting elected. All those roadblocks are in place because the two major parties put them there to prevent 3rd party challengers. The whole thing is rigged.
Just to show up and get 1% of the vote, you would need a grassroots national movement to elect someone who was wildly popular, who could build a 50-state network of volunteers (including legal, political, financial, community organizing, etc), sponsored by someone with extremely deep pockets that doesn't want anything from established political figures. And you'd still lose.
We have representatives already. The problem is we never hold their feet to the fire. We keep voting for the same useless bastards, and we don't vote them out when they do nothing. Half the country doesn't vote. That's our own responsibility we're shirking. Rather than get a new party, we need to get off our collective asses, and use the existing power we have to force the parties to do their jobs.
First past the post doesn’t explain historically why we have only two parties, but it explains why we will continue to have only two going forward unless something changes.
I actually think the US hard two party system isn't purely due to first-past-the-post, it is actually due to four interacting factors: (1) first-past-the-post; (2) presidentialism; (3) a deeply-entrenched primary system; (4) cultural homogeneity
Point (4) will likely strike many Americans as dubious, but the US doesn't have anything comparable to Québec – there is presently no US state where English isn't the majority language; nor anything comparable to Scotland or Northern Ireland (no state where a significant percentage of its population identify with a competing national identity). So, no matter how much (undeniable) diversity the US has, in the sense that counts for this purpose, it doesn't.
Hence: while abolishing first-past-the-post would no doubt do a lot to break the US hard two-party system, it could also be broken while retaining it if something happened to (2) or (3) or (4) instead.
But, in US politics, changing (2) or (3) is even more politically fringe than changing (1) is. Maybe that might change at some point though, who knows what the future holds.
And (4) will likely eventually cease to be true, but only in the long-run in which we are all already long-dead.
I don't mean that the two party system we have is due to first-past-the-post, it almost doesn't even really matter why we have it. But first-past-the-post is the mechanism which currently entrenches it and is the most likely to change. I think that (3) is a result of the system, not a cause.
It explains why you end up with two parties even if you start with more. The two largest will woo minority parties until they get a majority. And minority party members know they will be marginalized unless they are aligned with the majority (or hope to be in the majority some day.)
Changing that will require a radical reconsideration of democracy, like replacing FPtP with... something.
It doesn’t because the UK has FPtP yet doesn’t have a hard two party system.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have nationalist movements that want out of the UK-state independence movements exist in the contemporary US too, but they are very fringe
But even England has not just Labor and the Tories, but also the Lib Dems, Reform, the Greens, Restore
So England proves you can have multiple parties with real power, with FPtP, even in the absence of regional-nationalist movements
I dont see how the uk system's small parties are not marginalized. The larger parties still claim outright majorities with 35% of the votes or less (last time 172 seat majority with 33.2% of the votes) so they are irellevant.
If I am not mistaken all disruptions to fpp two party systems eventually settle back into them, maybe not the same parties but two nonetheless.
The smaller parties are all aligned with one of the two major parties. In a lot of ways they act more like caucuses than separate parties. Like Bernie Sanders being "independent".
That's overstating it, but it's why the largest group always can form a government. They go to the same aligned parties looking for a majority.
I think it does largely explain it. Congress can't do even necessary things. On the rare occasions they can, they create an executive branch agency and give it the power to write regulations. They know that Congress is neither qualified nor capable of handling it.
Then when the executive takes more power they have little ability to opposite it. Especially since there is a significant Congressional delegation who believes in the Unitary Executive theory, who will interfere with attempts to rein it in.
I believe it is entirely due to the Founders being intent on pitting Congress against itself, while the President is a single person. They initially tried a half-assed version of that by making the runner up Vice President, but that was quickly seen to be useless.
There is a lot more to be said over a quarter millennium, but that is the fundamental design flaw.
Congress largely just generates new federal agencies, where there is now about 400+, and then mixing responsibilities for running them. Combine that the executive order mandate scheme and appointment/independence thing being vaguely defined. So it basically continuously empowers the executive each generation while Congress is scared to respond.
Which is other half in how the two parties perfected building loyalty schemes, where the president or leading opposition candidate can kill off a congressional candidate with their influence and easily stack congress with their people.
I’d personally ban a sitting president or ex president from getting involved in Congress or senate run. Also maybe a similar scheme for the Supreme Court.
> It doesn’t fully explain why Congress has allowed the expansion of executive power for nearly a century, resulting in more and more major issues being pushed to the Supreme Court.
It's not just about executive power. In recent times, Congress failed to adjust the written law when societal consensus shifted, and the discrepancy was resolved the courts, and ultimately the Supreme Court. I don't think Congress would pass something like the Civil Rights Act under the current circumstances. This isn't good for a democracy because the political debate that is part of the regular legislative process is lost.
In 2002, Hillary Clinton voted for the Iraq War. In 2008 Obama used that fact successfully to [help] win the Democratic nomination and went on to beat McCain.
As Donald Trump and the Republicans have so aptly proven, all checks and balances depend on an elaborate system of conventions, manners and personal honor, and a general spirit of compliance. As soon as the electorate votes for a party and administration choosing to simply ignore all that, the system folds entirely.
That is also the core problem for reestablishing trust with the rest of the world: Even if a Democrat or just a sane Republican wins in 28 and tries to revert many of the destructive policies the current administration enacted, there is now solid evidence the much-hailed system of checks and balances doesn’t work as advertised. And that means there is not really a legitimate argument to trust the US as much as countries and businesses did, which calls a lot of things into question—the bond market, the petrodollar, investments in the USA, dependency on American services…
They had factions, which turned almost immediately into parties: the Federalists and Anti-federalists, which morphed into the Democratic-Republicans. There were always two after that, until the former died off and the latter split into what we have had since.
Well, one should also remember that they thought protecting the opulent minority was so important that an entire house ought to represent them. Secure the permeant interests of the country and all that.
Not that the other house isn't also tilted that way, but it seems to be that they, and the appointments approved by them, are functioning exactly as was intended (as shown by the supreme court suddenly caring about executive overreach when it came to money). Who knows whether they would care about the social issues affecting the poors nowadays, but they certainly didn't care to let the people be in charge without a veto from that opulent minority.
Thankfully, the CFTC can't actually order Kalshi to continue operating in NY despite being in violation of NY law. They have no authority to override any judge's order/etc, and at least so far, have not pretended they do.
As for me, i've never pretended it's either normal or desired for the courts to make policy, whether congress is dysfunctional or not.
Among other things.
My comment was basically pointing out that the current supreme court seems perfectly willing to throw out decades of settled law on an ideological whim, and actually, for that matter, happily interpret very clear congressional statutes in very odd ways.
So your comment there is mistargeted, at least as applied to me.
> the current supreme court seems perfectly willing to throw out decades of settled law on an ideological whim, and actually, for that matter, happily interpret very clear congressional statutes in very odd ways
Fortunately or unfortunately, the Supreme Court has always been willing to do that. This court has been overruling decisions of the Warren Court, just as the Warren Court overruled decisions from the Lochner Era.
> We can't keep pretending it's normal for SCOTUS to decide everything about our society.
That's not what this is. As the 9th Circuit points out, states already have quite extensive laws about gambling. We don't need Congress to step in to either reinforce or displace them. The courts are doing their job by ruling on existing laws.
Unless Congress passes a law so SCOTUS doesn't have to.
Congress doesn't need to pass a new law. Federal gambling laws were not removed from the books when Congress created the CFTC because they did not intend for gambling transactions to be regulated by the CFTC. (Federal gambling laws were not struck down until 2018, by SCOTUS, on First Amendment grounds. Yes, the decision was written by one of the justices known to have accepted gifts from companies doing business before the Court.)
Absolutely. Rui is awesome. He's always been awesome. I was his director and then vp for a long time (also replaced by awesome people, thankfully). The day he left to make a go of mold and such I was sad for us and super excited for him.
I get this is basically advice for young founders and entrepreneurs, but i would ignore that request and encourage 17 year olds to spend time trying to find a happy medium between work and life.
Being a super rich and an unhappy workaholic, or a super-impressive engineer who wakes up one day at 45 and realizes they regret wasting half their life (I ran into way too many of these) is a much worse fate than "not being rich from your startup" and working a relatively regular job while feeling fulfilled and happy by more than just work.
Especially in the US, which is uniquely bad at this and encourages people to work themselves to death, mental health and work life balance are much more valuable things for 17 year olds to focus on than finding good startup ideas.
In case you think i'm being a bit dramatic, let's look at the state of 17 year old mental health in the heart of Silicon Valley:
"The City of Palo Alto and the Palo Alto Unified School District approved a funded contract to place 24/7 human security guards and monitors at all four local Caltrain grade crossings, including the Churchill Avenue crossing directly adjacent to Palo Alto High School."
(in case it's not obvious, it's because of suicides by high school students)
The 17 year olds do not need advice on better startups, and this situation will never get better if we focus our advice on how to be better at work instead of how to be better at life.
This will require redirecting the conversations.
Thank you. They need human contact, not more "sit in a room alone and get stressed as fuck for little ROI" tech bullshit. Unless the kid has a genuine, self-motivated interest in learning these things (a great, positive thing that should be nurtured), they should file pg's advice under "ok boomer."
Just a few days ago they turned on an experiment the forces claude code to use bash over standard tools in auto mode.
From the system prompt directly, new as of August 18th:
Do your work through the Bash tool wherever it can accomplish the job: read files with cat, head, or sed -n, search with grep and find, and make file changes with sed, heredocs, or short scripts, rather than using the dedicated Read, Edit, or Write tools. Fall back to a dedicated tool only when Bash genuinely cannot do the job.
I was wondering why Claude Code started ignoring my LSP tools and such a couple days ago, and this is why. Prompting around it (even with CLAUDE.md) results in low adherence.
This can be turned off by setting a special environment variable (setting CLAUDE_CODE_THRIFTY_SONIC to 0), but this is just a bad idea all around.
I'm sure they'll argue they are trying to make it use less context tokens to do things, but if this is the best they could think of, ....
This is of course, also not documented anywhere, as is typical for anthropic, you just have to guess whether you are going crazy or if they changed stuff seriously on you under the covers.
This was the last straw for me. Their harness (models are fine) was already falling well behind the other one i use (OMP) in the past 6 months in usability/etc, and they are the only ones who don't allow me to use other harnesses with my subscription.
So I've now stopped using claude code entirely. Unless something changes, i'll drop my max plan when it expires next month.
It is extraordinary how they managed to fuck up all of their goodwill with all these unnecessary stuff. They truly are a hostile company if I have ever seen one. And they had the entire developer community cheering for them a couple months ago.
I hope they fail in their mission, whatever that is. Because I'm sure it's no benefit to anyone ever.
While they’ve certainly fucked up goodwill with their actions, it’s also true that the tech enthusiast community has always been like teenagers who reject their favorite band when it gets popular.
Oh, I used Claude before they got popular… their new stuff is trash compared to the early albums
It's astonishing how often Anthropic choose to self-own. They're giving AMD a real run for their money in "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity"
I mean their track record when humans are in the loop is not better either. Decisions on hidden downgrades, subscription usage restrictions, account bans, neverending dance around model availability on subscription plans. Keeping CC closed source. Not releasing a single open model. BURNING BOOKS..
OpenAI feels like a bastion of competent management and development compared to this shit show and they have a psychopath on the helm. This is an achievement by itself.
What I find amazing is how many people are still clutching onto Claude Code like it's the only feasible tool and somehow genre-defining?
I personally got sick as f with their unreliability and hostility and bugs back in about January and switched to Codex but this is still very clearly a minority position.
I'm sure OpenAI will do the same nonsense eventually, but people need to act like they have options.
It's just an immature ecosystem still, which means that everything has its drawbacks (IMO). I like Code way more than Codex. I like Pi a lot, and I expect it or something like it will eventually be the winner here for me, but I really miss the no-brainer "it just works" integration of Claude into Code, and the non-usage-based billing. Pi feels a lot more "raw" to me at the moment.
Oh ffs is that why it suddenly started running into a ton of permissions errors trying to read and write files outside it's sandbox (I think the auto mode classifier blocks bash commands that would be allowed as read commands) and runs into all this nonsense where it uses bash to read a file then later tries to use the write tool and gets blocked on "must read file before writing it" and stuff? I thought I was going crazy yesterday- like had something changed ov5or had I just somebody not noticed it was failing tool calls that badly for months until yesterday but it makes sense if it was just because of that system prompt update. That's so god damn annoying idk how many tokens are getting wasted in the past couple days on these failed tool calls but it's not a trivial number
If i'm trying to steel-man why, I presume because the read/write/edit tools use more context tokens because they don't support reading part of a file/etc.
So the agent is going to put less into context when it uses sed to see 15 lines of a file than using read and putting the entire file into context.
That is my best charitable guess at what they are hoping to achieve.
Of course, there is an obvious set of solutions for this problem that don't involve pushing the agent to use bash.
Part of the reason i assume is that to extract 5 line ranges is a single line very small sed call that it has to output, but 5 separate full read calls it has to output correctly and quickly.
This is totally true but almost totally irrelevant. I'll use some hyperbole here to make the point: Whether the design is broken or decades behind doesn't matter anymore. Neither of those are an outcome/end goal. They are means we historically have used to achieve good end goals or outcomes.
In the end, the goal is usually "does it meet the needs of the person who needed it" not "is it good software". If it no longer meets their needs and they can vibe code another total piece of shit in an hour that meets their needs again, they still may be "better off" than spending time researching the field and learning and ...
This may feel shitty, and it may feel like it should not be true. But right now, that seems to be true?
In that sense, the author is wrong that vibe-coding is a trap. The trap is assuming you have to make something good to meet someone's needs both now, and in the future.
Now, like i said, this is hyperbole, and there are lots of good arguments against it. The author's just isn't one.
Technically good or better has never mattered very much in the marketplace, despite people wanting it to really badly (ease of use often mattered, but not technical goodness). Software engineers often took pride in their work and so there were usually kernels of goodness in even the shittiest software. All you are seeing is that now it is nowhere near as hard to create and bring these "solutions" to market, and more importantly, doesn't necessarily require anyone who has any pride in their work at all, or even have any experience in software engineering. As such, technical goodness has mostly gone out the window because the market never required or really rewarded it.
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