This is something I've been thinking about for a while, as I have two high schoolers, both with a knack for programming, and at least one of them wants to get into software.
A lot of my comments get responses that assume I'm an "AI booster" but what I really am is someone highly motivated to understand the capabilities and limits of this technology, because it is already very directly impacting the future of my kids.
What I tell my kids is a function of what I believe the future holds: nobody will be doing low-level cognitive work anymore, it will all be done by AI, so our job is to be better than AI. Unfortunately:
a) Low-level cognitive work is like (SWAG) 80% of all knowledge work, and so more than 80% of jobs are effectively gone, they just don't know it yet.
b) AI is getting really good really fast so that 80% is also growing quickly.
That means that the days of doing a junior-to-mid level job, kind of just coasting along -- often until retirement -- are gone. Everybody has to be good enough to be doing the top 20% of cognitive work, which involves fuzzy things we call innovation, expertise, domain knowledge, intuition, taste, handling uncertainty, and the like.
So my advice to my kids is:
1. Whatever you do, be the BEST at it, regardless of grades. Grades already meant little, now they mean even less. Being the best likely also necessitates strategic avoidance of AI, but I'm willing to be proven wrong on that.
2. Be "high agency". Annoying buzzword but perfectly captures the trait everybody will be hiring for. The 80% of the jobs were those doing the drudgework for the 20% "high agency" people calling the shots. And those are the exact jobs that are gone. Just do things, because now you can.
3. Critical thinking may soon be the only job requirement remaining. Get bullet-proof at that and learn relevant skills (maybe data literacy?)
I'm also encouraging trade school, but that seems less attractive to the kids.
I'm not saying skip college just yet, but we do intend to aggressively "value-maxx" college education (e.g. community college) and focus on building something, anything, practical -- since showing what you've built is better than degrees from most colleges.
I thought of that too and looked into it. (Or rather had an AI look into it! ;-)) Fortunately, there are extreme physical constraints on how quickly manual labor could be replaced, especially anything requiring dexterous work. Mainly, supply chain constraints on rare earth elements, which are required to make these motors feasible.
By some estimates, today's global supply is like 2% (or was it 0.2%?) of the total amount required to enable such widespread deployment of robots. Until we can scale that up (or figure out how to bypass that dependency) there is a very hard constraint on how fast they can be deployed.
I have a hard time believing that won't be overcome or surpassed when you compare it to the cost of producing an adult human capable of skilled trades.
But this assumes an evil superintelligence. We don't even need that for terrible things to happen; we just need people doing people things and AI doing AI things at scale, and that scale is rapidly exploding as we scramble to deploy AI in the real world.
Case in point, that hallucination (which, if it was an evil superintelligence, could have been "strategic") that almost led to US boarding a Chinese ship over suspicions of nuclear weapons: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/us-military-ai-failure-...
It doesn't have SkyNet, it just has to be WOPR. And it doesn't have to be people who are motivated to cause harm, it just has to be people making consequential decisions who are careless, distracted, paranoid or anxious -- which everybody is at some point or another.
And I almost kill people when stopping at a cross walk. That doesn't mean I harmed a pedestrian. Society is set up to be very robust. Humans themselves make mistakes and do bad things and society has had to learn how to live with that truth.
>it just has to be WOPR
Then why argue for setting a pace for the frontier labs if we've already surpassed WOPR level integration / intelligence.
> And I almost kill people when stopping at a cross walk. That doesn't mean I harmed a pedestrian. Society is set up to be very robust. Humans themselves make mistakes and do bad things and society has had to learn how to live with that truth.
Maybe not you personally, but many, many other people have killed many, many pedestrians, and when they exhibit a pattern of bad driving -- or other deviant behavior -- we take them off the streets. That is an example of society being robust.
Except, over here, we're rushing to make AI, which we know has many deviant behaviors and we know caused harms in many circumstances (starting with AI-assisted suicides), even more powerful AND deploy it in more and more real world systems!
As history and, literally, current events show us again and again, society has failure modes that lead to widespread harm and destruction. We've had world wars and then literally had multiple close calls with nuclear war right after. And then we have all that's going on out there. (In related news, the Pentagon threw a hissy fit because Anthropic would not let them use Claude for autonomous killing machines. Do I have to even mention what they've been up to these days?)
Most of these failures are caused by misaligned incentives and socioeconomic forces. The incentives and forces around AI have hints of many brand new failure modes that we can't even foresee because things are moving so fast.
> Then why argue for setting a pace for the frontier labs if we've already surpassed WOPR level integration / intelligence.
"We're already going down this mountain pass at 200 miles an hour, why slow down now?"
I think we should not just slow down frontier AI development, we should also slow down where and how that AI gets deployed.
A very intriguing thought from a Christian theological perspective is, God created man his his own image, and now we've created AI in our own. And look where we are now!
This raises many intriguing questions:
- Does that mean we have created AI in God's image?
- Or was their "misalignment" between God and us like there seems to be between us and AI?
- Did God cast man out of Eden because he was worried we'd destroy heaven?
- Is the Bible our system prompt or a user prompt?
- Is life an eval to vet whether individual agents err people can contribute to his tasks without going rogue and destroying heaven?
- Are harmful human behaviors in the name of religion unintended "reward hacking"?
- Does this explain the rather weird relationship between God that requires getting twisted into logical pretzels to rationalize?
- Did God go through this crisis himself? ;-)
I'm sure there are many more similar lines of inquiry but I'm just not familiar enough with Christianity to make the connections. Would be fun to read an expert thesis that explores this parallel!
I actually think the opposite… it takes all my skills as an engineer to steer these things effectively and I’ve learnt more than I imagined I could in a very short period of time. And I don’t even use AI as heavily these days due to other commitments. This also aligns with how heavy AI users report feeling drained after intense coding sessions.
My take is that after a period of turmoil, most humans will be doing higher level cognitive work than we’re doing now, because all the lower level work will be done by AI agents, and so progress will accelerate multifold.
Wait, if you’re talking about the Google Books case, Google won. Maybe they made adjustments on how they served results but they certainly did not stop.
The Google Books settlement was originally going to make Google into a clearinghouse for scans of out-of-print books. The scans would have been available for individuals to purchase for a reasonable price, and libraries and institutions would have been able to subscribe to a service that would give patrons access to the full text of every book. This deal fell apart because some research libraries and authors argued this was anti-competitive, as anyone wanting to make a competing service would have to go through the same process as Google of settling a class action lawsuit. They instead wanted Congress to pass a law to free up the rights to orphaned books. No progress on this was subsequently made because nobody in Congress cares enough about the rights to out-of-print books to get legislation passed. The whole reason why they're out of print when ebooks and print-on-demand exist is that they won't get enough sales to make it worth the time and money to figure out who the royalties should go to. The result is that nobody outside Google gets to see the full Google Books scans.
> HathiTrust Digital Library is a large-scale collaborative repository of digital content from research libraries, administered by the University of Michigan. Its holdings include content digitized via Google Books and the Internet Archive digitization initiatives, as well as content digitized locally by libraries.
> Authors Guild, Inc. v. HathiTrust (2014) was a following case related to HathiTrust, a project by the libraries of the Big Ten Academic Alliance and the University of California systems that combined their digital library collections with those of Google's Book Search. The HathiTrust case differed in two primary factors which were raised by the plaintiffs: that for viewers with disabilities, they could view the scanned text through a screen reader to make it easier to read, and offering to print out the scans as replacement copies for members of the universities if they could verify their original copies were lost or damaged. Both uses were deemed also to be fair use by the Second Circuit.
> The subject of the copyright of orphan works – works that may still be under copyright but with no identifiable rights holder – was a significant point of debate after both this and HathiTrust. Normally, libraries have been hesitant to loan digital copies of orphaned works as libraries may be liable for copyright violations should the copyright owner step forward to claim ownership.
And there are exceptions for copyrighted works allowing them to lend them out.
> Protected by copyright law, but made available: Protected by copyright law but made available on a strictly limited basis in accordance with the statutory limitations including, but not limited to, Section 107 provisions for fair use, Section 108 provisions for libraries and archives, and the rights provided to registered users with disabilities. In the absence of an applicable exception, no further reproduction or distribution is permitted by any means without the permission of the copyright holder. Lawful uses of works are provided only under the following conditions ...
"Gods are immortal" does not imply "immortals are god" though. Like the movies showed us, you could always just cut off their heads. THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!
For sure, but that has been a confounding factor in any discussion on the waves of layoffs and makes it more about executive incompetence than a systemic change in the industry. What I found interesting was that this chart somewhat quantifies that overhiring so we can estimate how much of a problem that really was.
If I'm eyeballing the chart right, it seems these companies over-hired by only about 3%.
A lot of my comments get responses that assume I'm an "AI booster" but what I really am is someone highly motivated to understand the capabilities and limits of this technology, because it is already very directly impacting the future of my kids.
What I tell my kids is a function of what I believe the future holds: nobody will be doing low-level cognitive work anymore, it will all be done by AI, so our job is to be better than AI. Unfortunately:
a) Low-level cognitive work is like (SWAG) 80% of all knowledge work, and so more than 80% of jobs are effectively gone, they just don't know it yet.
b) AI is getting really good really fast so that 80% is also growing quickly.
That means that the days of doing a junior-to-mid level job, kind of just coasting along -- often until retirement -- are gone. Everybody has to be good enough to be doing the top 20% of cognitive work, which involves fuzzy things we call innovation, expertise, domain knowledge, intuition, taste, handling uncertainty, and the like.
So my advice to my kids is:
1. Whatever you do, be the BEST at it, regardless of grades. Grades already meant little, now they mean even less. Being the best likely also necessitates strategic avoidance of AI, but I'm willing to be proven wrong on that.
2. Be "high agency". Annoying buzzword but perfectly captures the trait everybody will be hiring for. The 80% of the jobs were those doing the drudgework for the 20% "high agency" people calling the shots. And those are the exact jobs that are gone. Just do things, because now you can.
3. Critical thinking may soon be the only job requirement remaining. Get bullet-proof at that and learn relevant skills (maybe data literacy?)
I'm also encouraging trade school, but that seems less attractive to the kids.
I'm not saying skip college just yet, but we do intend to aggressively "value-maxx" college education (e.g. community college) and focus on building something, anything, practical -- since showing what you've built is better than degrees from most colleges.
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