Her farthest journey was a day's walk, to a nearby market town.
I think this is what boggles my mind most about antiquity: the vast majority of people rarely ventured much past where they were born (unless they did a likely once in a lifetime religious pilgrimage which took the better part of a year).
Seeing as most other people didn't venture further either, you really got to know the people around you very well. Common life limitations simply precluded much travel. The only foreigners you saw were either invading hordes, or traders who were constantly on the road.
There were and have always been trading and other exchanges all over the world. The Egtved girl was traveling from north to central Germany, probably for marriage. Now, if we mean most people did not do this, then sure. But there's a persistent idea that ancient cultures were not in contact with each other, and this is largely disproven.
I think it's the other way around. Without the cultural norms around impersonal markets, you have to rely on your extended family network or clan for everything, because there is no trust otherwise. This is what keeps you from traveling. If you were trying to trade with a far-away stranger, why should they not just rob you instead? Nobody is around to punish. And for all they know, you were just as likely trying to poison them rather than make a fair trade.
My grandmother told a story about meeting an elderly female relative in Kingston, Tasmania, soon after my grandparents had got their first car. After visiting, they said they were now going back to the city (Hobart), and the old lady said, "Oh, how lovely, I've never been!" My grandmother reported, "And I should have told her 'get in the car then!', because she died not too long after."
Anyone can speculate. If we fail to pay interest in a timely manner, then presumably fewer foreign entities will buy our debt, and we will have less money from debt sales to fund what debt funds. Whether that pain is spread equally or not is anyone's guess.
If we fail to pay interest in a timely manner is potentially catastrophic. US Bonds are considered a safe haven because we have never defaulted on our debt
The principal is repaid by issuing new bonds at maturity. This can be sustained for a long time if interest rates are low, but for much less time if rates rise.
The volume of bonds being issued becomes so great that rates have to be raised to ensure they all find buyers.
It is not as though the US Treasury can afford to wait until it finds a buyer at lower yield. It absolutely must sell these bonds to pay off the principal on the old ones.
I don't think the "average" is a good metric for the social impact of this. Everyone (or almost everyone) being at a standstill would be the minimum that governments should worry about. When even a sizable minority loses ground, that could create unrest.
I don't think your ancestors sat around the living room while their kids were playing threshing wheat, though. They put the plowshares down once it got dark.
May I point out that in "Crudam si edes, in acetum intinguito", that "edes" is more likely to be the future of edere/esse "to eat"? (Just guessing by context.)
I honestly like the vocabulary and turns of phrase the frontier models use. Their choices of words are usually apt to the circumstance. This is a weird thing to get upset about, IMO.
The big problem I have is when they apologize and say something like "that tidbit changes my analysis substantially". I wish they'd more often prompt for questions or use language in their initial responses that suggest lower than declarative confidence given the information you supplied.
While your analogy is valid, I find it hard to get upset at people who flout an artificially imposed limit to a license to engage in employment.
I'm aware the vehicles and drivers were at first highly unvetted, but the moral impulse that's got everyone so up in arms about prediction markets isn't remotely the same as Uber smashing through antiquated monopolies that existed more by historical accident than any unavoidable public safety need.
Exactly. While there isn't much of a legal distinction between regulatory capture and consumer protection, there's obviously an ethical one. Uber was ignoring rules that apparently mostly protected established investors rather than end-users of car-hiring services.
I can't upvote this enough. As has been attributed to the Roman stoic Seneca: “An enemy is a bad witness to your merits, but a good one to your defects.”
I can't imagine SWEs will be reduced to SDETs anymore than attorneys will be reduced to spell-checkers on AI powered case briefs.
I am a very AI-forward person, but hallucinations are becoming more pernicious than ever even as they get less frequent, especially if the code actually works. A human absolutely has to guide these processes at a macro level for sustainability for SaaS as it evolves with business needs.
Maybe for one and done systems with no maintenance/no updates/no security patches you can reduce humans to SDETs, but systems like that are more the exception than the norm.
I've noticed even more than the "hallucinations", just the code is generally quite bad.
At least with concurrent and distributed systems stuff (which is really all I know nowadays), it is great at getting a prototype, but the code is generally mediocre-at-best and pretty sub-optimal. I don't know if it's because it is trained on a lot of mediocre and/or buggy code but for concurrency-heavy stuff I've been having to rewrite a lot of it myself.
I think that AI is great for getting a rough POC, and admittedly often a rough POC is good enough for a project (and a lot of projects never get beyond a rough POC), but I think software engineers will be needed for stuff that needs to be more polished.
Numerous real world technical requirements can be solved with existing code, lightly modified. That’s basically LLM code’s bread and butter. The further you get from that, the closer the “time saved using LLM” line gets to zero, and once it crosses, it becomes the “time wasted using LLM” line. I think embedded and concurrent systems are going to require more unique code solutions than, say, a crud web app with a few interesting feature-building junkets.
I'm getting the impression that LLMs are just not very good at "reasoning" about time. I have definitely had success getting a coding agent to produce decent concurrent code, but I had to basically lead it by the nose, and I strongly suspect that in most cases it would have taken less time to just do it the old fashioned way.
I've had good luck having it translate TLA+ specs to programming languages. The specs are written by me and my fingers, and I've done most of the interesting concurrency reasoning beforehand.
I'm pretty sure it still saves me time, and if nothing else it's an excuse to write TLA+, and that's fun.
The code is quite terrible, but no one has ever cared about code quality, at least in my experience. All they’ve ever cared about is that “it works”. It’s why an army of juniors always write most of the code.
I had this same discussion at work the other day. I had an 80k line generated project dropped on my plate. It doesn’t use anything built into the web framework or orm. It’s a maintenance nightmare.
I think there are plenty of projects where "good enough" really is "good enough"...maybe most apps? If you're just making a shitty simple app, I don't really care about code quality.
Example: I got Claude to generate a language server for TLA+ so I could have nice integration with Neovim. It took like 45 minutes of arguing with Claude and then it worked fine. This is incredibly low-stakes stuff: realistically the worst case scenario is that the text in the file gets screwed up, and I'm somewhat protected by Git if that happens.
That said, I am a little concerned how cavalier people have been deploying AI code everywhere. I don't want pacemaker firmware to be written by some intern in an afternoon with Claude.
By SDET I mean one who reviews not writes code, maybe we have different definitions of that term because you also mention humans being needed to guide the processes.
Even still, other professions interact with the real social world which is not necessarily the case with programming. A lawyer will always be needed because judgments are and must be made by humans only. Software on the other hand can be built and tested in its own loop, especially now with human readable specifications. For example, I wanted to build an app and told Claude and it planned out the features, which I reviewed and accepted, then it built, wrote tests, used MCPs including the browser for interacting with the UI and taking screenshots of it, finding any bugs and regressions, and so on until an hour later it came back with the full app. Such a loop is not possible in other professions.
It's when you have to iterate to handle changing business needs, scale issues, and integrate with other systems where the entropy becomes a scary concern over a long enough timeline.
And it's not just "checking" - it's wholesale rejections of code, reframing prompts to target specific classes or approaches, etc... I don't think you will take the human out planning any time soon.
This afternoon I was speaking with a friend and mentioned that I need to find a lawyer for contracts. His immediate response was, "you don't need a lawyer, just use AI". Not an avenue I'm interested in going down.
I think this is what boggles my mind most about antiquity: the vast majority of people rarely ventured much past where they were born (unless they did a likely once in a lifetime religious pilgrimage which took the better part of a year).
Seeing as most other people didn't venture further either, you really got to know the people around you very well. Common life limitations simply precluded much travel. The only foreigners you saw were either invading hordes, or traders who were constantly on the road.