> We get a P<1.64E-14. Therefore, I think we all can agree that we can reject the null hypothesis of RenTec having no alpha.
The probability of my particular shuffled card deck is around 1E-68: vanishingly less likely. Therefore I think we can all agree we can reject the null hypothesis that my card deck was obtained at random. /s
Highly unlikely things happen all the time. Their occurrence should not be ascribed to alpha due to occurrence. The probability of occurrence due to occurrence is of course 1.
Well if you prrdicated such a permutation, that would indeed reject the null hypothesis. If 1.64E-24 doesn’t convince you, how do you manage to believe in anything at all? Thr world view you are positing is essentially solipsistic: there’s nothing that exists or is true except your own existence. Hopefully we all can agree that at best, such a view results in paralysis, at worst, absolute destruction.
Moreover, I don’t think you or anyone else actually applies your logic in your own life. If you did, you would be dead because of your disbelief in reality. For example, you migh conclude that eating is unnecessary, because the people who starved to death were just unlucky and that in fact, there’s been no “proof” that people need food at all. Or even proof that people exist at all!
The probability of my particular shuffled card deck is around 1E-68: vanishingly less likely. Therefore I think we can all agree we can reject the null hypothesis that my card deck was obtained at random. /s
Highly unlikely things happen all the time. Their occurrence should not be ascribed to alpha due to occurrence. The probability of occurrence due to occurrence is of course 1.